When you hear someone confidently declaring "BTC is going to be $100k later this year" (when its current actual price is $50k) you should probably completely discount that. If it could actually be known, based on publicly available information, that BTC would be trading at $100k later this year, then it would be about $100k right now, minus some small percentage due to time preference/interest. The reason is that skillful investors buy the asset as long as its current price is less than its expected future value (discounted by some percent for time preference). This drives the price up. This continues until there is no longer an expected profit to be gained, which means its current price is a fair estimate of its time-discounted future value.
Why I Think Your Investment Advice Is Bullshit
Why I Think Your Investment Advice Is…
Why I Think Your Investment Advice Is Bullshit
When you hear someone confidently declaring "BTC is going to be $100k later this year" (when its current actual price is $50k) you should probably completely discount that. If it could actually be known, based on publicly available information, that BTC would be trading at $100k later this year, then it would be about $100k right now, minus some small percentage due to time preference/interest. The reason is that skillful investors buy the asset as long as its current price is less than its expected future value (discounted by some percent for time preference). This drives the price up. This continues until there is no longer an expected profit to be gained, which means its current price is a fair estimate of its time-discounted future value.