To Democrats

Dear Democrats,

Please don’t give us another 4 years of Trump. Please try to learn from your last failure. Last time, you nominated the person with the second worst unfavorability rating in presidential polling history (https://news.gallup.com/poll/197231/trump-clinton-finish-historically-poor-images.aspx), and possibly the only person who could lose. This time, please try to think non-wishfully about who can win the general election. Hint: it’s not whoever you personally like most or whoever is closest to your personal ideology. More hints:

a. Trump won last time. If nothing changes, he’ll win again. All the reasons why you would think Trump couldn’t win have already been refuted. He beat 15 other candidates in the primaries, including smarter, more knowledgeable, more reasonable-looking candidates, including experienced career politicians with establishment backing. He bullied all of them, then bullied Clinton in the general, and bullied his way to the White House. If the Democrats nominate someone who is ‘better’ than Trump in just the ways that Clinton was better than Trump, then Trump will win again. In particular:

b. To most voters, ideas barely matter. Voters are not looking for a smart, educated candidate with government experience and lots of policy ideas. If you’re thinking that’s going to beat Trump, you’re dreaming. Evidence: remember 2016?

c. What matters? The most superficial things possible. Height. Confidence. “Strength”. If it can’t be seen in a 20-second video clip, it probably doesn’t matter to the median voter.

d. You already have all Democrat votes. It’s not enough. You need some independent or moderate Republican votes. If all the 2016 Trump voters vote for him again, he’ll probably win again.

e. Conclusion 1: nominate a moderate, not an extremist who only appeals to your base.

f. Conclusion 2: nominate someone who will look strong when Trump tries to bully him, not someone who is going to look weak as Trump looms over her, or interrupts her loudly with “Wrong.”

I haven’t looked at all the candidates. But here are four of the leaders:

1. Beto O’Rourke: Trump is going to bully the shit out of him. Beto will look like the class nerd being whaled on by the schoolyard bully.

2. Bernie Sanders: You think a ranting, self-described “socialist” is the key to winning over the median American voter? If you’re living in the bubble of academia, someone needs to tell you that you are *radically* out of step with the rest of the country.

3. Pete Buttigieg: See O’Rourke. Also, the median voter is not going to vote for (i) someone whose name they can’t pronounce, or (ii) someone who looks like their kid. See (b)-(c) above. It’s really like that.

4. Joe Biden: Viable. Trump is going to have a hard time bullying him. Sure, he’s a creepy toucher, but look whom he’s running against.

What’s different this time:

- Granted, this time around, Democrats will probably turn up to the polls in greater numbers. In 2016, some were probably complacent, because all the pundits were saying Clinton had it in the bag.

- But note also that the economy looks very strong right now, with historically low unemployment & historically high stock market. This strongly favors the incumbent, meaning Trump is in a much *better* position now than he was in 2016. We may not like it, but that’s the fact. Without knowing who the challenger will be, if you had to bet, you should bet on 4 more years of Trump.

Think about that when you’re considering whether to nominate a candidate that appeals to the hard-left base at the expense of alienating the middle.