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Peter Gerdes's avatar

I think this presents a false dichotomy between evaluating every claim from the ground up and not using your thoughts about the issue to evaluate alternatives.

I don't think anyone is suggesting that anyone who wants to make a decision about a medical diagnosis should start from scratch and evaluate every argument afresh. However, the usual case is that there are multiple positions, often both defended by experts, and one can usually find presentations of the disagreement between them where you can at least compare the arguments they make to some degree.

I'd argue that one should think of it like a probabilistic proof verification. You can't hope to evaluate the complete arguments presented by each side by you can look at selections of the arguments they've selected as the most convincing and check how strongly various steps support the next intermediate conclusion. If one side's arguments seem to have weaker links when selected at random (assuming correction for length of the arguments) that's good statistical evidence for them having the weaker overall claim.

Also, when that fails, I'd argue that comparing how the various camps have done on prior predictions counts as "thinking for yourself".

Besides, if you don't think for yourself what other option do you have to decide between competing expert views? If have to decide whether to get a surgery and some docs are big proponents and others detractors and both sides are likely quite credible (none of the easy ways you can discredit global warming deniers). So, other than at least getting a sense of what the arguments are and why they hold them and then trying to analyze some of the links in their evidentiary chains what else can you do? Flip a coin?

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Arnold Kling's avatar

I think that many people default to the heuristic "Defer to the person with high status," even though that person may not be an expert. A famous athlete appearing in a commercial for a financial service, for example. "Think for yourself" may be an admonition against the heuristic of believing the (non-expert) high-status individual, such as your favorite politician.

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